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Just two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or the source of the team's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

This is a rather hard query to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have piled up.

Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side which has strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume scoring again.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.